The Romney Campaign Sabotaged By Their Own Confirmation Bias

“Dammit, Rove! You TOLD me an American Presidential Election costs not one cent more than $103,000,000! If you needed more, you should have SAID SOMETHING!”

They knew they were going to win. They simply knew it. Everyone they spoke with, polled with, did business with, and otherwise were so fed up with the direction the country was going in with Obama at the helm, they KNEW the election was theirs to lose.

Sure, they had some social obstacles to overcome, but tread lightly and keep the focus on what mattered—the economy and jobs—and sure enough, Obama would be out of the White House as quickly as he ascended to it.

They just knew it.

It is a funny thing all of the stuff we proclaim to know.

They knew it so assuredly, they ignored MATH. Simple polling math. If the polls didn’t agree with their previously held notion that the nation was fed up with Obama (less the pesky 47%), then they discarded the data, and simply used their OWN polls instead to drive strategy.

As reported on CBS News:

As a result, they believed the public/media polls were skewed – they thought those polls oversampled Democrats and didn’t reflect Republican enthusiasm. They based their own internal polls on turnout levels more favorable to Romney. That was a grave miscalculation, as they would see on election night.

Those assumptions drove their campaign strategy…

HuffPost stated:

On the eve of the election, a number of polling aggregators, including HuffPost’s Pollster and New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight, showed Obama with a huge statistical advantage over Romney.

They BELIEVED their OWN polls were more accurate than ALL the other third party polls out there that had Obama leading.

This is called Confirmation Bias, and it’s a real bitch.

Confirmation bias refers to a type of selective thinking whereby one tends to notice and to look for what confirms one’s beliefs, and to ignore, not look for, or undervalue the relevance of what contradicts one’s beliefs. –SkepticsDictionary.com

We ALL suffer from it. No one is immune. The key is to be aware it’s there and then account for it.

  • The reason Obama supporters will never read Fox News – Confirmation Bias.
  • The reason many people STILL hate hip-hop – Confirmation Bias.
  • The reason Ann Coulter still exists – Confirmation Bias.
  • The reason the Taliban claimed media bias in their coverage of brutal shooting of 14yr old, Malala [true story] – Confirmation Bias
  • The reason why Christians ignore and dismiss secular arguments against their institutions even though more people than ever before are refusing to be identified with any sort of organized religion – Confirmation Bias.

That bitch will break up a happy home, and lose billions on an election year. The wagers vary, the psychology…not so much.

Sorry about it Mitt. Holla at Rove and ‘dem when the billionaires that CHANGED LEGISLATION so they could buy the election come calling wanting answers about how you guaranteed a ride on Air Force One when 2013 came around.

So much saltiness in the air.

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4 thoughts on “The Romney Campaign Sabotaged By Their Own Confirmation Bias

  1. Pingback: The Romney Campaign Sabotaged By Their Own Confirmation Bias « Dark Acts Bible: Glass Half Empty, Base Cracked…

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